The Cambridge developed Predict: Prostate model and Webtool is endorsed by NICE

September 23rd 2019

The Predict: Prostate prognostic tool has just been endorsed by NICE and recommended for decision making to support their new prostate cancer guidelines. This is the first model and webtool that NICE have endorsed in support of their guidelines. Predict Prostate developed in Cambridge by the Academic Urology Group, Department of Epidemiology and the Winton Centre for Risk communication provided unbiased estimates of cancer and non cancer mortality for men newly diagnosed with prostate cancer and the likely gains from treatment. The tool is also recommended by CRUK and MacMillan. The work was led by Mr Vincent Gnanapragasam and Professor Paul Pharaoh and undertaken by Mr David Thurtle an ACF in the department of urology and surgery. This endorsement comes as the group have just published a new paper from a randomised trial showing that having the model available reduced the variance in risk estimates amongst clinicians and their subsequent likelihood of recommending unnecessary treatment by 30% (Thurtle et al 2019 BJC In press-https://www.nature.com/articles/s41416-019-0569-4.pdf).

The web tool prostate.predict.nhs.uk is free to use to any clinician and patient anywhere in the world and has received over 22,0000 visits from 50 countries since its launch in March 2019.

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